DRY · ADVERSE SELECTION CONFIRMED 2026-09-01 — both markout bracket ends negative (PHI and QUEUE, never summed). Anchors now fed from the paid Odds API, which sharpens fair values and does not repair the structure. All estate verdicts →

PIKOTW Polymarket Maker … Colony BTC

Practice mode — the bot trades pretend money and keeps score as if it were real. No real money is at risk.
Trading mode
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Real money
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Health
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Running for
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Markets being quoted
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the bot offers to buy and sell in each one
Reward roster $/day
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reward-weighted since 18 Aug
Rebates & rewards what market-making earns on top of price P&L — fill rebates are exact; resting-quote rewards are an estimate (uncalibrated model) and are NOT included in the P&L numbers on this page
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The scoreboard finished markets only — these are the numbers to judge the bot by · the cautious (QUEUE) model is legacy — new fills disabled 18 Aug, open fills settling
Each card counts only markets that have actually finished and paid out. "Cautious" is the bot's conservative estimate of what it would have earned; the small "optimistic" line is a friendlier estimate — the truth is usually in between.
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Today so far provisional — this number swings as games settle at different times, and includes any manual accounting catch-up booked today (3 Aug: +$103.93 of July orphan settlements sit in the cautious figure). Judge by the scoreboard above, not this. Cautious (QUEUE) is legacy — new fills disabled 18 Aug, open fills settling.
Today · cautious
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changes as markets settle
Today · optimistic
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same day, friendlier estimate
Today · real money
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nothing — real trading is off
Today by family
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Money in play what is currently riding on unfinished markets
Practice money on current markets
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pretend stakes on the markets the bot is quoting right now
Positions in markets no longer tracked
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the bot cannot price what it does not track, so these ride to resolution unmanaged
Real money on the book
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Results over time finished markets only — running total of profit

Profit running total show:

solid = cautious · dashed = optimistic

Profit by day blue cautious · purple optimistic

Day by day, family by family cautious estimate where it exists, optimistic otherwise · finished markets only

daysportsweatherpoliticsothercryptototalsettled
Recent activity every simulated purchase, and how it turned out

Fills –

whenfamilymarketpickpricestake $outcomeprofit $model
Operator controls & diagnostics — technical, safe to ignore
Live (real money) controls disarmed — paper only
Status
DISARMED
two gates closed
Net total · LIVE
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no live fills yet
Rejected orders
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Edge survival
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live per-fill ÷ optimistic per-fill
Paper totals
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Paper exposure detail
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Family pause switches stop/resume quoting per family (pause_cat / resume_cat)

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Defense gates –

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Crypto anchor btc-updown quoting is anchor-gated — no fresh anchor, no quotes · max 6 windows · exploration v2 league table to 26 Aug (week-1 updown prereg superseded)

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Markets every market being quoted · ✕ kills a market (blacklist) · ↺ revives it
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Live tape all prints on our markets · highlighted = filled us

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Bot activity log

Fill models: QUEUE = conservative (queue position, no assumptions) · PHI = optimistic (25% capture). On this page QUEUE is labelled "cautious" and PHI "optimistic". Taker fees follow Polymarket's curved schedule (they vary with price — not a flat rate). QUEUE is legacy — new fills disabled 18 Aug by verdict (queue_enabled false), open fills settling; do not read its numbers as live strategy.